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Evaluation of failure probability of corroded pipelines method


Probabilistic reliability assessment method requires that the failure probability Pf should be equal to or less than the required target failure probability, to call it target level of safety. Target level of safety is defined as: specific design for a maximum acceptable failure probability, exceeding the target failure probability deemed unsafe, to take measures to improve. At present, China has not established oil and gas pipeline failure probability evaluation criteria commonly used in marine pipeline engineering standards [6] and other standards (such as API579) provides: service conditions, the general goal of the failure probability is 10. This will be the probability value as the assessment of pipeline safety standards. 4.4 Safety Assessment can be seen from Figure 3, the entire failure probability no more than 10-3, indicating that the security situation in the section of the pipeline to meet the requirements,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], no need to repair the defects detected. It should be noted: 8km from the station exit the lot, the corrosion defect density, corrosion is more serious. Probability of failure here is also relatively close to the target failure probability, the proposed pipeline corrosion paragraph should be closely monitored. In the safety assessment of the pipeline, found that the failure probability of the lot over a number of target failure probability, this part of the pipeline made recommendations for further monitoring and maintenance. 5 Conclusion (1) According to the general theory of structural reliability, loading capacity of the pipeline to establish the limit state equation, the limit state equation is a pipeline failure probability of the mathematical foundations. (2) In order to properly assess the security situation in the pipeline, the pipeline should be adopted across the board failure probability analysis, that the full range of pipe corrosion in the statistical analysis and failure probability calculations. The method is theoretically able to consider the complex factors of uncertainty, but also in practical applications provide a comprehensive history and current status of the pipeline to run the data, with a project to promote the use value. (3) Examples show that the proposed method is to detect corrosion on the pipeline after the pipeline safety assessment of an effective method. References [1] LeifCollberge,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], EspenHCramex, OlaHBjoroy. Re-q ~ mliflca-tionofpipelinesystems [C]. Pr ∞ eeclilofthesixth-int ~ ma-tionaloffshoreandpolarengineeringcollfere ~ o0 ,1996:27-34. [2] BaiY, SongR. Reliability-basedlimit-statedesignandre-qualificationofpipelines [C]. Prooeediloftheoffshoremechanicsandarcticen ~ neertngcollfere ~ o0, 1998, NewYork,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], NY. USA. [3] AhammedM. Probabilistieestimationofrmlaininglifeofapipelineinthepreseno0ofactiveO0glX38iondefeetsEJ]. Inte ~. nationalJournalofPressureVesselsandPiping ,1998,75:321-329. [4] where a clear head, Wang Shan. Structural reliability analysis and design rM]. Beijing: National Defence Industry Press ,1993:60-77. [5] AEtBIG ・ Manualforassel1grem cricket gstrengthcorrodedpipesrs]. AmericanSocietyofMechanicalEngi-neer8, 1996. [6] TorbjornSott ~ g , TorgeirMoan,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], R ~ ~ oertoBix ~ hi. eta1. Thesuperbproject: recommendedtargetsafetylevelsforlimitstatebaseddesignofoffshorepipelines [C]. 1997OMAE-VolumeV, PipelineTechnology,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], AE1997 :71-77. (Received date 2002-09-23 2002.02 -28 back to edit Yang Zhuo) Ling Qiang
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