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Port Logistics Park Construction Risk Analysis and Assessment


Regional economic development, the comprehensive consideration of transportation, logistics and potential demand, urban development planning based on such factors as the city planning of the area of port logistics park 140hm. The park is close to the port, the Longhai Railway from the region through, even Huo high-speed, 310 State Road, road transport to provide support for the Salt River close to the park, its location, the traffic more obvious advantages. In a comprehensive analysis of the construction of the logistics park on the basis of various risk factors, using the following steps to assess their degree of risk. 1) A survey of experts on the importance of each risk factor to judge, are the primary and secondary risk factors, weight indicators are as follows: confer (0.20,0.20,0.10,0.30,0.20); W1 = (0.30,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych],0.30,0.20,0.20); W2 = (0.30,0.30,0.20,0.20); W3 = (0.20,0.30 ,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], 0.30,0.20); w4 = (0.30,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych],0.30,0.30,0.20); ws = (0.20,0.20,0.25,0.20,0 .15). 2) Determine the fuzzy evaluation matrix obtained by expert investigation on the levels of each risk factor index reviews of the fuzzy membership, to establish the fuzzy evaluation matrix. The expert survey and collate the findings are the main factor set ,,,,, evaluation matrix is as follows: R1 = R2 = R3 = 0.30.30.20.10.10.30.40.20.10.00. 40.40.10.10.00.40.30.20.10.00.30.20.20.20.10.30.30.20.20.00.30.40.10.10.10. 40.30.30.00.00.30.40.20.10.00.30.30.20.10.10.40.40.20.00.00.30-30.20.10.1R4 = R5 = 0.40.30.20.10.00.30.30.20.20.00.30.20.30.10.10.40_30.20.10.00.30.40.20.10. 00.20.40_30.10.00.30.30.30.10.00.30.20.30.10.10.20.30.30.20.03) fuzzy evaluation calculation B1 = W1xR1 = (0. 340.350.180.10.03), B2 = W2xR2 = (0.320.290.200.140.05), B3 = W3xR3 = (0.330.350.200.050.05), 4 = W4xR4 = (0.350.280.220.130.02), B5 = W, xR5 = (0.2650.320.260.1350.02),[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], = (W1, W2, w, W4, W5) x [B1 , B2, B3, B4, B5r = (0.3210.3110.2140.1190.031). The normalized, we get B = (0.322,0.312,0.215,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych],0.119,0.031). 4) the assessment of fuzzy evaluation vector of the final results of the assessment Conclusion 5: 6,77.68. The computing nodes J = 1 results with pre-set benchmarks to compare the assessment to determine their risk level is within acceptable range. If the assessment of pre-set benchmark S = 70, the project was the logistics park near the low level of overall risk, within an acceptable range of the same, judging from the perspective of risk of the project can be implemented. 5 Conclusion Risk Analysis and Assessment investment appraisal of port logistics park in an important part of this paper, the theory of risk assessment, construction of the port logistics park in the existing risk analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is applied to the level of risk quantitative assessment. The results show that the assessment method is simple to apply the results of its assessment of the port logistics park has some of the investment decision-making guide.
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